AUGUST 29, 2017 / 9:35 PM / A DAY AGO
North Korea launch increases focus on risky U.S. shootdown option
Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea’s firing of a ballistic missile over Japan could increase pressure on Washington to consider shooting down future test launches, although there is no guarantee of success and U.S. officials are wary of a dangerous escalation with Pyongyang.
More attention is likely to focus on the prospects for intercepting a missile in flight after North Korea on Tuesday conducted one of its boldest missile tests in years, one government official said.
Such a decision would not be taken lightly given tensions over North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
And while President Donald Trump has repeatedly vowed that “all options are on the table”, there has been no sign of any quick policy shift in Washington toward direct U.S. military action.
But Pyongyang’s launch of an intermediate-range Hwasong-12 missile over Japan’s northern Hokkaido island underscored how Trump’s tough rhetoric, pursuit of sanctions and occasional shows of military force around the Korean peninsula have done little to deter North Korea’s leader.
“Kim Jong Un has chosen to thumb his nose at the Americans and Japanese by conducting this test,” said David Shear, former U.S. assistant secretary of defense for East Asia.
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has already pledged that the military would shoot down any missile it deemed a danger to U.S. or allied territory.
What is unclear is whether Washington would be prepared to use its multi-layered missile defense systems to intercept a missile like the one that overflew Japan but never directly threatened its territory.
Doing so would essentially be a U.S. show of force rather than an act of self-defense.
“I would think that in government deliberations that would likely be one of the options out on the table,” Shear said.
Some analysts say there is a danger that North Korea would see it as an act of war and retaliate militarily with potentially devastating consequences for South Korea and Japan.
China, North Korea’s neighbor and main trading partner, would also likely oppose such a direct U.S. military response.
MINIMIZING DAMAGE
A missile is launched during a long and medium-range ballistic rocket launch drill in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang on August 30, 2017. KCNA/via REUTERS
Experts say there is no guarantee that U.S. missile defense systems, including Aegis ballistic missile defense ships in the region and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems based in Guam and South Korea, would hit their target, despite recent successful tests.
A failed attempt would be an embarrassment to the United States and could embolden North Korea, which this year has already conducted two tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile believed capable of hitting the U.S. mainland.
The United States has spent $40 billion over 18 years on research and development into missile defense systems but they have never been put into operation under wartime conditions.
Mattis this month expressed confidence the U.S. military could intercept a missile fired by North Korea if it was headed to Guam, after North Korea said it was developing a plan to launch four intermediate range missiles to land near the U.S. territory.
If North Korea fired at the United States, the situation could quickly escalate to war, Mattis said.
GROWING THREAT
Not everyone is convinced the U.S. military can defend against North Korea’s growing missile capability.
Some experts caution that U.S. missile defenses are now geared to shooting down one, or perhaps a small number, of incoming missiles. If North Korea’s technology and production keep advancing, U.S. defenses could be overwhelmed.
“If a shootdown fails, it would be embarrassing, though not terribly surprising,” said Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the 38 North think tank in Washington.
“Missile defense does not provide a shield that protects against missiles. Rather, it is like air defense; it is designed to minimize the damage an adversary can inflict,” he said.
One U.S. official said the military would be especially cautious about shooting down a North Korean missile that did not pose a direct threat because of the risk of civilian casualties if it were intercepted over Japan or South Korea, as well as difficulty in determining how Pyongyang might retaliate. The official spoke on condition of anonymity.
U.S. military and intelligence officials warn North Korea could unleash a devastating barrage of missiles and artillery on Seoul and U.S. bases in South Korea in response to any military attack.
Targeting of a North Korean missile in flight that did not endanger the United States or its allies could also raise legal questions. U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban Pyongyang’s ballistic missile programs do not explicitly authorize such actions.
Japan also faces questions over the legality of shooting down missiles in its airspace but not aimed at Japan. Under legislation passed in 2015, Tokyo can exercise a limited right of collective self-defense, or militarily aiding an ally under attack, if it judges the threat to Japan as “existential”.
Reporting By Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom Additional reporting by Idrees Ali and Mike Stone in WASHINGTON, Linda Sieg and Tim Kelly in TOKYO; Editing by Warren Strobel and Lincoln Feast
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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AUGUST 29, 2017 / 6:50 PM / 39 MINUTES AGO
U.S. bombers drill over Korean peninsula after latest North Korea launch
Jack Kim and Kaori Kaneko
SEOUL/TOKYO (Reuters) - South Korean and Japanese jets joined exercises with two supersonic U.S. B-1B bombers above and near the Korean peninsula on Thursday, two days after North Korea sharply raised tension by firing a missile over Japan.
The drills, involving four U.S. stealth F-35B jets as well as South Korean and Japanese fighter jets, came at the end of annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises focused mainly on computer simulations.
”North Korea’s actions are a threat to our allies, partners and homeland, and their destabilizing actions will be met accordingly,” said General Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy, Pacific Air Forces Commander, who made an unscheduled visit to Japan.
“This complex mission clearly demonstrates our solidarity with our allies and underscores the broadening cooperation to defend against this common regional threat.”
North Korea has been working to develop a nuclear-tipped missile capable of hitting the United States and has recently threatened to land missiles near the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam.
On Monday, North Korea, which sees the exercises as preparations for invasion, raised the stakes in its stand-off with the United States and its allies by firing an intermediate-range missile over Japan.
On Thursday, its official news agency, KCNA, denounced the military drills in traditionally robust fashion, calling them “the rash act of those taken aback” by the missile test, which it described as “the first military operation in the Pacific.”
President Donald Trump, who has warned that the U.S. military is “locked and loaded” in case of North Korean provocation, reacted angrily to the latest missile test, declaring on Twitter that “talking is not the answer” to resolving the crisis over North Korea’s weapons programs.
RELATED COVERAGE
Spain to reduce number of North Korean diplomats in Madrid
Japan says jet fighters joined drills with U.S. aircaft south of KoreaU.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis was quick on Wednesday to stress that a diplomatic solution remained possible, but on Thursday he told reporters he agreed with Trump that Washington “should not be talking right now to a nation that is firing missiles over the top of Japan, an ally.”
White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders reiterated at a regular briefing on Thursday that all options - diplomatic, economic and military - remained on the table.
Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera spoke to Mattis by telephone and agreed to keep putting pressure on North Korea in a “visible” form, Japan’s defense ministry said. Japanese Prime Shinzo Abe said he and visiting British Prime Minister Theresa May agreed to urge China, North Korea’s lone major ally, to do more to rein in North Korea.
May and Abe also discussed the possibility of adopting a new U.N. Security Council resolution on North Korea, a British government source said.
Two U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers fly from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, for a mission, with an escort of a pair of Japan Self-Defense Forces F-15 fighter jets and U.S. Marines' F-35B fighter jets in the vicinity of Kyushu, Japan, in this photo released by Air Staff Office of the Defense Ministry of Japan August 31, 2017. Air Staff Office of the Defense Ministry of Japan/HANDOUT via REUTERS
SANCTION OPTIONS
The 15-member U.N. Security Council on Tuesday condemned the firing of the missile over Japan as “outrageous” and demanded that North Korea halt its weapons programs. But the U.S.-drafted statement did not threaten new sanctions.
Japan has been urging Washington to propose new Security Council sanctions, which diplomats said could target North Korean laborers working abroad, oil supplies and textile exports.
However, diplomats expect resistance from Russia and fellow veto-wielding power China, particularly given that new measures were only announced on Aug. 5 after North Korea tested its first two intercontinental ballistic missiles in July.
Slideshow (12 Images)
A U.S. ban on travel by Americans to North Korea comes into effect on Friday, a step announced after the death of a U.S. student shortly after his release from a 15-year prison sentence in the country, where three other Americans are still detained.
China repeated a call on Thursday for restraint by all parties.
Defence ministry spokesman Ren Guoqiang told a monthly briefing China would never allow war or chaos on the Korean peninsula, its doorstep, and military means were not an option.
“China strongly demands all sides to exercise restraint and remain calm and not do anything to worsen tensions,” Ren said, adding that Chinese forces were maintaining a normal state of alert along the North Korean border.
Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the situation on the peninsula was serious.
“The current tense situation on the peninsula isn’t a screenplay or a video game,” she told reporters. “It’s real, and is an immense and serious issue that directly involves the safety of people from both the north and south of the peninsula, as well as peace and stability of the entire region.”
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